Election cycle heightens communications and public affairs challenges across the Americas

The effects of elections held and scheduled across the Americas in 2026 extend well beyond determining governments and legislative majorities. Regulatory changes, trade relations, tax policy, investment, geopolitical disputes and the dialogue between companies and governments are requiring organisations to strengthen their political analysis and reputational preparedness. These issues were at the heart of the online session “The 2026 Electoral Cycle in Latin America and the United States”, held last Wednesday (26) by the Global Alliance’s Latin America Regional Council. The Global Alliance is the global confederation of the world’s leading communication associations. Aberje sits on the organisation’s board.

The session brought together Dan Doherty, Global Chair of Corporate Affairs at SEC Newgate, and Thyago Mathias, Vice President of Advocacy and Public Affairs for Latin America at the consultancy. It was moderated by Hamilton dos Santos, CEO of Aberje and Chair of the Global Alliance’s Latin America Regional Council.

Opening the discussion, Hamilton noted that electoral cycles have consequences for reputation, corporate communications and government and institutional relations. He also referred to the “2026 Polarisation Map”, which Aberje is preparing to launch. The study examines the historical and conceptual trajectory of polarisation and explores how the phenomenon has evolved from an issue associated with political conflict into a broader feature of contemporary social life, with direct implications for organisational communication.

Political shifts reshape the business environment

Thyago’s analysis portrayed a Latin America undergoing political shifts amid challenges involving governance, legislative fragmentation and pressure to attract investment. He identified the electoral cycles in Colombia, Peru and Brazil as among the most significant for understanding the region’s political and economic direction.

In Colombia, Abelardo De La Espriella’s election by a margin of less than 1% signalled a shift to the right and closer ties with the United States. From a business perspective, Thyago pointed to prospects for greater engagement with the private sector and opportunities in oil and gas, mining, infrastructure, agribusiness and defence. However, the narrow electoral margin and a divided legislature could constrain the new government’s ability to implement structural reforms.

Peru combines economic potential with institutional instability. Keiko Fujimori’s narrow victory comes in a country that has experienced successive presidential crises and confrontations between the executive and Congress. At the same time, its mineral reserves, particularly copper, and its access to the Pacific keep the country highly relevant to global supply chains associated with the energy transition.

For organisations interested in the Peruvian market, the analysis highlighted an issue that extends beyond national politics. Community conflicts and local opposition represent significant operational risks, making social licence to operate and engagement with local communities critical factors. Thyago also cited logistics integration projects between Brazil and Peru and interest from European and Australian mining companies in the country’s reserves.

Brazil faces decisions with regulatory implications

In Brazil, the breadth of the elections makes the vote particularly significant for the business environment. On 4 October, voters will elect the president, all 513 members of the Chamber of Deputies, 54 senators, representing two-thirds of the Senate, 27 governors and members of state legislatures. According to the analysis presented during the session, the presidential race remains tight, with women and independent voters expected to play a significant role in determining the outcome.

For businesses, the election also encompasses debates that could affect costs, investment and operating models. Key issues include proposals concerning Brazil’s six-day working week, implementation of tax reform and the Selective Tax, which will apply to products including alcoholic beverages, regulation of fixed-odds betting, and the challenges facing Brazilian foreign policy in its relations with the United States and China.

Congressional fragmentation adds another variable. Regardless of the presidential outcome, organisations will need to monitor the composition of both chambers and their ability to shape regulatory and economic agendas. Brazil’s relationships with the United States and China are also likely to remain significant for sectors exposed to international trade, as China is one of the country’s leading trading partners.

Companies need to prepare for new interlocutors

Turning to the United States, Dan Doherty outlined a scenario in which the 2026 midterm elections could alter the balance of power in Congress without necessarily changing the direction of foreign policy in the short term. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats are being contested. The Republicans’ narrow majorities in both chambers increase the significance of a small group of competitive states, North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Texas, Michigan and Georgia, particularly in the battle for control of the Senate.

Economic issues are the electorate’s primary concern. The cost of living and spending on healthcare, housing and energy rank among voters’ main worries, while the expansion of data centres and artificial intelligence infrastructure is beginning to gain electoral significance because of its perceived impact on electricity bills. According to the presentation, several states are considering restrictions or tighter oversight of large-scale facilities, cutting across traditional partisan divisions between Republicans and Democrats.

A potential Democratic majority in the House could also increase companies’ exposure to congressional investigations. Dan said Democratic leaders had signalled interest in issues including pricing, multinational tax practices, federal contracts, digital assets, trade and tariffs. Foreign companies with US subsidiaries, joint ventures or dealings with US authorities could fall within the scope of such scrutiny.

For Latin America, Dan noted that the US executive branch retains considerable authority over hemispheric policy, while Congress exercises more direct influence over trade, sanctions and powers related to international conflicts. In this environment, corporate decision-making needs to account for the ways in which domestic US issues could affect tariffs and trade relations with the region.

Addressing the risks facing chief communications officers and public affairs professionals, Thyago argued for strengthening corporate diplomacy. Companies, he said, can engage directly with policymakers and advocate for their interests more quickly, without relying exclusively on government action, particularly on trade and tariff issues.

Dan linked this ability to act effectively to a precise understanding of priority audiences and the use of data to anticipate reputational impacts. “We have polarised and fragmented audiences. For a CCO, you need to be very clear about which stakeholders really matter. With that clarity and reliable data, you can move forward with confidence,” he said.